The Amateur Wave

One way to help predict the future of trends in everyday technology is what I will term the "Amateur Wave". Amateurs have a vital role in the development and assimilation of new technology. As one phase of the Amateur Wave terminates because developments have made it too difficult, as well as unnecessary, a new phase inevitably opens up somewhere else.

Solid state (meaning based on transistors and other chips, rather than vacuum tubes) technology, combined with mass-production techniques, made small radio devices very difficult to diagnose and repair, and at the same time inexpensive enough to be disposable so that repair was unnecessary. It cost less to simply buy a new transistor radio, than to try and repair a broken one.

But prior to these developments, the Amateur Wave contributed a tremendous amount to the development of electronics and radio technology, from amateur (HAM) radio operators to the hobbyists who would construct all manner of projects from kits and electronic components. A few decades ago, skill with electronics was in very high demand.

Just as mass-production and miniaturization was making that increasingly unnecessary, more and more people were becoming able to afford cars, and the Amateur Wave shifted into the automotive field. From the  1950s to the early 1980s, one might hear a guy talking about rebuilding the engine of his car over the weekend, or fine-tuning it's performance in the days when engines still required tune-ups, or maybe installing an air intake scoop on the hood to impress everyone at school.

But then cars got more efficient and computerized so that, as with electronics and radios in earlier days, amateur participation became increasingly difficult as well as unnecessary.

It was around this time that computers were making the transition from mainframes to PCs, and the Amateur Wave moved on to another phase. In a technically-inclined family, the grandfather might reminisce about building radios and electronic projects, the father about souping up car engines and, the son about putting together computers and adventures online and with computer games.

Whatever the next major development in technology turns out to be, we can be sure that the Amateur Wave will be there.